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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Aug 3 2020 2:23 pm

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Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031252
SPC AC 031250

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2020

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z



A few tornadoes in association with Isaias will be possible across
eastern North Carolina and far eastern South Carolina tonight into
early morning Tuesday. Isolated severe storms are also possible
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the central and southern
Appalachians, and from Montana southward to New Mexico.

...Eastern Carolinas...
T.C. Isaias is forecast to reach the coast near the NC/SC border
area tonight. Low-level shear will increase markedly across eastern
NC and far eastern SC within the eastern semi-circle of the
land-falling center, where 850-mb flow may be in excess of 70 kt.
Low-level hodographs will become quite enlarged overnight, with the
most favorable overlap of SRH and weak buoyancy expected to occur
across eastern NC between 06-12Z. Some CAMs depict multiple outer
bands during this time frame which will yield a risk for at least a
few tornadoes. 

...Central/southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic...
Moderate mid/upper-level southwesterlies will persist in advance of
a broad trough from the Great Lakes to Lower MS Valley. With weak
low-level flow across the Appalachians, well west of T.C. Isaias,
modest elongation of hodographs will occur. Poor lapse rates should
limit updraft strength, but isolated damaging winds will be possible
with scattered thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon. 

Low-level flow will increase across the Mid-Atlantic States
overnight Isaias moves inland. Convection embedded within a broader
stratiform region across the Delmarva and Chesapeake regions may
encounter sufficient low-level shear to yield a risk for a brief
tornado towards 12Z Tuesday.

A shortwave trough near the WA/British Columbia border will move
east into southern Saskatchewan by early Tuesday suppressing an
upper ridge over the High Plains. Low-level moisture should tend to
remain limited ahead of the shortwave trough given mid to upper 40s
surface dew points at present across much of the state. A belt of
30-40 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies attendant to the trough will
support a risk for isolated severe wind and hail with scattered
thunderstorms that spread east of the higher terrain during the late
afternoon and early evening.

...WY to NM...
Scattered thunderstorms will again form off the central and southern
Rockies this afternoon amid weak to moderate buoyancy. A persistent
belt of confluent mid-level north-northwesterlies will be displaced
farther east over the High Plains compared to recent days,
suggestive of a less organized severe risk. Nevertheless, isolated
severe hail and wind should occur for a few hours during the late
afternoon to early evening.

..Grams/Jewell.. 08/03/2020


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