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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: May 30 2020 8:31 pm

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Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301949
SPC AC 301947

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Sat May 30 2020

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z


Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms, offering destructive
winds and hail, are expected to continue through roughly 10 PM PDT
over parts of the interior Pacific Northwest, east of the Cascades.

Little change is being implemented to the ongoing outlook at 20Z, as
the current forecast remains reflective of expectations.  

Very isolated/low-end severe risk may persist over southeast VA and
the coastal Carolinas into early evening, with no adjustments to the
existing outlook needed.

In the Pacific Northwest, an initial severe storm has developed over
northern Klamath county, with additional development expected with
time.  Latest CAM runs show a bit less tendency for upscale growth
into an MCS later this afternoon and evening as storms spread
northward.  As such, current wind probability appears sufficient at
30%.  A northward nudge in 5% tornado probability is being effected
due to this more cellular trend in forecast storm mode, though
overall tornado risk still appears limited -- tempered by the
general high-based nature of the convection.

..Goss.. 05/30/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat May 30 2020/

...Interior Northwest...
Primary change is to increase tornado probabilities across parts of
central OR. Categorical outlook is largely unchanged. Consideration
was given for an upgrade to Moderate Risk in the western portion of
the Columbia Basin. Concerns over the spatial extent of the severe
wind coverage preclude further upgrading at this time.

Thunderstorms will likely intensify after 19Z in a zone of strong
deep lift across south-central OR, ahead of an ejecting shortwave
trough. Here, robust diabatic heating is underway amid a plume of
low to mid 50s surface dew points. This will support a narrow
corridor of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE reaching 750-1500 J/kg from
central to northeast OR. Greater buoyancy is expected to develop
towards 00Z farther downstream in eastern WA to northwest MT where
mean-mixing ratios are higher.

Surface-based effective-inflow parcels will exist on the west side
of the surface front, where low-level winds will be veering with
height, hodographs strongly curved, and deep shear relatively
maximized. With low-level vorticity also maximized in the frontal
zone, multiple supercells are expected. Though the environment
generally favors higher-based convection, initial supercells should
have the best potential for large hail and a couple tornadoes
between about 21-23Z. As the supercells spread rapidly
north-northeast, at peak boundary-layer heating over the Columbia
Basin, upscale growth into a forward-propagating MCS appears
probable. This will increase the potential for severe wind gusts,
some of which may be significant, given the favorable combination of
steep lapse rates and moderately large buoyancy. Overall setup
appears likely to yield a swath of severe wind in the Columbia Basin
from north-central OR across parts of central and eastern WA before
the MCS moves into British Columbia.

...Northern Rockies to central High Plains...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon near
the large-scale ridge, primarily over higher terrain. Convection
should spread slowly off the mountains in a loosely fan-shaped
pattern across the outlook corridor: to the north-northeast in the
ID/MT region, and east-southeast across the central High Plains.
Isolated severe is possible as the convection moves across a
marginally moist, but strongly heated boundary layer supporting
maintenance of hail/gusts to the surface. The lack of substantial
upper support and ridging-related weaknesses in low/middle-level
wind speed will be limiting factors to a greater severe risk.

...Carolinas/Southeast VA...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon over
portions of the Piedmont and coastal plain, moving east to
southeast. Weak winds through most of the troposphere will limit
organization of the severe threat. However, sporadic tree damage
from localized strong gusts will be possible.


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