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RSS Tropical Cyclone Advisories from NHC

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 141746
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Newfoundland, Canada.

A large low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean less than 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is moving slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
Satellite imagery and surface wind data indicate that low has become
better defined since yesterday, and shower and thunderstorm activity
is showing increasing signs of organization. If this recent
development trend continues, then a tropical depression or a
tropical storm storm is likely to form later tonight or early
Tuesday while the low moves generally northwestward toward the Cabo
Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further
development by midweek. This system is forecast to bring locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
tonight through Wednesday morning, and interests there should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are
associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over
northwestern Honduras. This system will move west-northwestward
across southern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico
during the next couple of days, preventing tropical cyclone
formation during that time. By Wednesday, however, the low is
forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where
conditions could become a little more conducive for some further
organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central
America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and
mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave accompanied by a small low pressure system located
over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of
cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although thunderstorm activity has
continued to increase and become a little better organized since
yesterday, upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally
conducive for significant development of this system over the next
day or two while it moves westward at around 15 mph. By late
Wednesday as the wave approaches the Windward Islands, upper-level
winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa (AT4/AL142019)

...MELISSA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 14
 the center of Melissa was located near 41.0, -51.4
 with movement E at 23 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Public Advisory Number 13

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 141437
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

...MELISSA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 51.4W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Melissa was located near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 51.4 West.
Melissa is moving toward the east near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The cyclone should gradually weaken before it dissipates on
Tuesday.

Gale-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly to
the southeast through southwest of the from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Melissa are gradually subsiding along
much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada.  Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 13

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 141437
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142019
1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  51.4W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  80 DEGREES AT  20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  51.4W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N  53.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 41.4N  46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 41.4N  39.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N  51.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER LATTO


Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 141438
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

Melissa has transitioned to an extratropical cyclone. Shallow
convection has become displaced greater than 100 n mi from the
center, and Melissa's circulation has become embedded within a
frontal zone.  The inner-core now consists of a swirl of low clouds
with a large amount of cool post-frontal stratocumulus wrapping into
the northern and western portions of the circulation. A recent ship
report just southwest of the center indicated gale-force winds
are still occuring in association with Melissa, and 35 kt will be
this advisory's initial intensity. The extratropical cyclone is
expected to gradually weaken over the next day or so, and dissipate
before it reaches the Azores.

Melissa is now moving at 080/20 kt and is embedded within
mid-latitude westerlies.  This general motion is expected to
continue until the cyclone dissipates.

This is the last advisory on Melissa from the National Hurricane
Center.  Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 41.0N  51.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  15/0000Z 41.4N  46.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  15/1200Z 41.4N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019


000
FONT14 KNHC 141437
PWSAT4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142019               
1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO                                                    

Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Graphics


Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 14:44:15 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 15:24:21 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152019)

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 14
 the center of Fifteen was located near 13.2, -20.2
 with movement NW at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 142039
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152019
500 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 20.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

However, interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor
the progress of the depression since a Tropical Storm Warning may be
required for portions of the islands later tonight or early Tuesday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude
20.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph
(13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
expected to pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on
Tuesday, and pass near the central portion of those islands Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Tuesday
morning. Rapid weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday morning
when the cyclone will be moving away from the Cabo Verde Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the Cabo Verde Islands, with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in the higher terrain,
especially across the eastern portion of the islands. This rainfall
may cause flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions could occur across the eastern
Capo Verde Islands by Tuesday morning, and then gradually spread
westward across the central portion of the islands by Tuesday
night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 142039
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152019
2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  20.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  20.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  19.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N  21.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N  22.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.7N  23.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.1N  24.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.4N  26.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 21.4N  29.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N  20.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 142040
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152019
500 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

The large low pressure system that moved off the coast of Africa
yesterday has gradually become better defined based on earlier ASCAT
scatterometer wind data and recent visible satellite imagery.
Several fragmented curved bands have been developing during the past
several hours, especially in the northern semicircle, and the
aforementioned ASCAT passes indicated that winds of 30-32 kt were
present northwest of the center. The initial intensity is set at 30
kt based on a blend of the scatterometer wind data and a satellite
intensity estimate of T1.5/25 kt from SAB, and the rather broad
nature of the depression.

A surge of mid-level dry air has recently penetrated into the
inner-core region, causing some erosion of the central deep
convection. However, this is expected to be a temporary condition
with convection returning later tonight and early Tuesday during the
normal nocturnal convective maximum period. However, the large size
of the cyclone -- more than 1000 nmi wide -- should prevent any
rapid or significant intensification. With very low vertical shear
conditions forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to continue for the
next 24 to 36 hours, at least some modest strengthening seems likely
given the unusually warm SSTs of near 28.5 deg C that the cyclone
will be traversing during that time. By 48 hours, the shear is
forecast to increase from the southwest in excess of 25 kt,
resulting in weakening into a remnant low shortly thereafter. By 72
hours and beyond, the shear is expected to increase to more than 40
kt, which will cause rapid weakening and dissipation by the 120-h
period, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to
a blend of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus models, and the GFS-
and ECMWF-based Decay-SHIPS statistical intensity models.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 310/07 kt. The
latest NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on the tropical
cyclone moving generally northwestward around the southwestern
periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 48 hours. Thereafter,
the models diverge significantly based on how soon the cyclone
weakens and turns westward within the low-level easterly trade wind
flow. The ECMWF holds on to a vertically deeper system a little
longer than the GFS, UKMET, HWRF, and HMON models, resulting in a
longer northwestward track. However, since the cyclone will likely
have become a vertically shallow remnant low by 72 hours, the NHC
official forecast track is a little to the left of ECMWF solution,
closer to the TVCN and HCCA consensus model tracks at 72 and 96 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 13.2N  20.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 14.3N  21.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 15.5N  22.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 16.7N  23.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 18.1N  24.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 20.4N  26.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1800Z 21.4N  29.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2019


000
FONT15 KNHC 142039
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152019               
2100 UTC MON OCT 14 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
RIBIERA GRANDE 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
PRAIA CVI      34  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SANTA MARIA CV 34  X  27(27)  12(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
SANTA MARIA CV 50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics


Tropical Depression Fifteen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 20:41:35 GMT

Tropical Depression Fifteen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 21:24:24 GMT

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