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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook



000

ABNT20 KNHC 230555

TWOAT 



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 

Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic about 200 miles east 

of Bermuda. 



A broad trough of low pressure, located over the western Caribbean 

Sea, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly 

east of the trough. Surface observations, satellite-derived surface 

wind data, and radar data indicate that a low pressure system has 

developed along the trough axis just south of Grand Cayman Island. 

Some gradual development of the low is possible during the next few 

days while it moves northwestward to northward across western or 

central Cuba on Saturday, then turning northward to northeastward 

across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Straits of Florida, and the 

central Bahamas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy 

rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, 

South Florida, and the Bahamas through early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.



$$

Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)

...EPSILON PASSING WELL EAST OF BERMUDA...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Oct 22
 the center of Epsilon was located near 32.6, -61.6
 with movement NNW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 968 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 17

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020  
000
WTNT32 KNHC 230231
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020
 
...EPSILON PASSING WELL EAST OF BERMUDA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 61.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 61.6 West.  Epsilon is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A generally
northward motion with increasing forward speed is expected through
early Saturday, with an even faster motion toward the northeast 
later that day.  The center of Epsilon will be moving away from 
Bermuda overnight.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in strength are expected for the next day
or two before gradual weakening begins by late Saturday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Winds at Bermuda will subside overnight.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 17

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020  
000
WTNT22 KNHC 230231
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020
0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N  61.6W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 360SE 560SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N  61.6W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N  61.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.8N  61.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 130SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.8N  61.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...230NE 220SE 150SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 37.8N  60.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 180SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 40.5N  56.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  10NW.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 280SE 260SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 44.3N  50.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW  30NW.
34 KT...250NE 310SE 300SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 48.4N  41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 140SE 140SW  30NW.
34 KT...320NE 360SE 360SW 270NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N  61.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 17

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020  
253 
WTNT42 KNHC 230232
TCDAT2
 
Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020
 
The eye became a little more apparent on satellite images but 
recently has become less defined.  The system has a somewhat 
ragged-looking Central Dense Overcast with a broad outer cloud band 
wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation.  
Upper-level outflow is fairly well-defined over the northern portion 
of the system.  The current intensity estimate is kept at 75 kt in 
agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective ADT 
estimates from UW-CIMSS.  Since Epsilon should be passing near a 
modestly warm oceanic eddy during the next day or so, some slight 
short-term restrengthening is allowed for in the official forecast.  
Later in the forecast period, gradual weakening should occur due to 
cooler waters, but the system is likely to remain a strong cyclone 
for the next few days.  By around 72 hours, the GFS and SHIPS 
guidance indicates that Epsilon will have undergone extratropical 
transition over the north Atlantic.  Afterward, the global models 
show the system merging with another cyclone at the higher 
latitudes.
 
Epsilon continues to move just a bit to the west of due north, or
at about 345/8 kt.  The cyclone is expected to move mainly
northward on the western side of a mid-tropospheric ridge during
the next couple of days.  By around 48 hours, Epsilon should
turn northeastward and accelerate as it becomes caught up in
the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is
not much different from the previous one, and is very close to
the latest corrected dynamical consensus, HCCA, prediction.
 
The forecast wind radii, which show the cyclone expanding over the
next few days, are in good agreement with the dynamical consensus
radii guidance, RVCN.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Winds at Bermuda will subside overnight, and the Tropical Storm 
Warning for that island has been discontinued.
 
2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 32.6N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 33.8N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 35.8N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 37.8N  60.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 40.5N  56.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 44.3N  50.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 48.4N  41.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020


000
FONT12 KNHC 230232
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020               
0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  36(36)   X(36)   X(36)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BERMUDA        34 12   4(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Epsilon Graphics




5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2020 02:40:46 GMT



 

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